I am a full time record dealer based in Reading in the UK. I am starting to wonder about the impact that COVID-19 is going to have on my second hand vinyl records business, but also on the wider Second hand vinyl market here in the UK. These are my thoughts. I’m no economist or an expert on this virus, but just a second hand record dealer living through these unprecedented times. I would love to get your thoughts on this and what impact this is having on your vinyl business. I will also try and update this as we progress through the Covid-19 outbreak.
At the time of writing we are only perhaps a few weeks into the outbreak, but things are changing rapidly. Record Store day 2020 has already been cancelled, all UK record fairs are cancelling and the worlds biggest fair in Utrecht Holland has also had to cancel. But what does this all mean to a second hand record dealer? Below I have taken a quick look at the impact on both online and offline sales demand and also the supply of Second hand records coming onto the market during this time.
Demand for Vinyl Records – Offline
I always see my offline sales in my second hand vinyl business here in the UK on a cyclical pattern around the Utrecht record fair. Utrecht occurs in April and November of each year. I should point out here that i don’t actually sell at the Utrecht fair and in fact have never been (I would love to!).
However in the month before and after Utrecht demand for vinyl here surges. I get a lot of calls from other record dealers wanting cheaper stock to fill boxes to take over to the fair. I also have “top end” dealers wanting to get their hands on expensive collectible vinyl again to take over to the fair. On top of this there are an influx of international dealers coming over to Utrecht that then come and visit the UK for vinyl. I have had over the years appointments with Japanese shops, Russian Collectors even dealers from as far away as Chile.
I’m sure I’m not the only one either, these “worldwide” dealers make appointments with a lot of UK based dealers and shops. They must be spending 10’s of thousands of pounds across the country, combine this surge in demand to every shop and dealer across the UK as well as the sales at Utrecht you are talking 100’s of thousands of pounds. As of writing this has all, or mostly all been wiped out.
I don’t own a record shop, but i’m pretty sure that footfall at shops will be falling fast. With possibly more stringent social distancing measures still to come it’s likely a lot will be forced to temporarily close.
It doesn’t paint a pretty picture, but perhaps the demand is all going to move to the online environment…
Demand for Vinyl Records – Online
Where as the impact on the offline demand is easier to see it’s less obvious what will happen in the online environment.
I sell a lot of records on ebay and so far haven’t seen much of an impact on demand and prices. Speaking with other dealers it also seems that the online demand is standing up well. From what I have read postal services here in the UK and across Europe are still operating well and although there are suggestions of some delays items are still getting through. The on-line environment is though almost totally reliant on the postal services. Not only do these need to keep operating, but they also need to keep operating well. Any loss in confidence in the postal system and I can see on-line sales crashing too.
There is a good argument that if postal systems remain strong that on-line sales could increase.Collectors around the world can’t get there off line fix at the local record shop or record fair may start buying more online. Also with a lot more people working from home, social distancing and self isolating perhaps vinyl is one form of entertainment that can continue to grow.
There is also a counter argument to this though. the economic impact on every country is looking like it’s going to be huge. A lot of job losses and possibly a lot less disposable income will likely impact the overall demand for perhaps what is deemed a luxury item of vinyl. I know a lot of collectors who are retired and possibly won’t be effected in this way, but what about the new wave of vinyl collectors in there 20’s and 30’s again this is all speculative, but perhaps there is more of an impact here.
At the time of writing there doesn’t seem to be a major impact on online sales and hopefully it stays this way.
Second Hand vinyl supply
The supply of second hand vinyl is critical to anyone running a second hand vinyl business, Since last weekend 14th March there has been a significant down turn in being able to get new supplies of second hand vinyl from the general public. In my business I travel the country buying record collections from the general public. Most those selling their records are aged 50+ and possibly 60-70% of the time they are planning to move house or have just moved. They have re-discovered their vinyl, realise they don’t play them and want to sell them. Since social distancing measures have come in my enquiries have shrunk dramatically maybe 90% and my existing appointments have all been cancelled.
The housing market is coming to a grinding halt and people quite understandably don’t want me in their house. I’m not sure where this goes from here. I imagine this is happening to all dealers that pick up vinyl from the public and at this point I can’t see this getting any better until we get over the top of the virus curve and social distancing measures are lifted. Is this 12 weeks, 6 months? At this point nobody knows.
The hope is that in the second hand vinyl market that the supply will become pent up and at some point release. The vinyl in peoples houses isn’t going anywhere and when we come out the other side it could see a large amount of vinyl “dumped” onto the market. On top of that there are arguments to be had that with so many people sat at home that clearing out will become commonplace. Again causing more vinyl to potentially come into the market. There is also the economic impacts to consider. There maybe people ‘forced’ into selling vinyl to ensure they have enough money coming in to pay for necessary everyday items.
What happens Next in the second hand vinyl market?
Well this really is anyones guess. I think offline sales will continue to decline and become increasingly difficult particularly during the next 3-6 months. With no record fairs, possibility of social distancing measures forcing shop closures or in the least lowering high street footfall it’s going to be a tough time. Obviously stressful, but perhaps also an interesting time, I’m sure they’ll be some real innovation coming. the obvious is to move more sales online, but perhaps there are other ways…home delivery!
I’m hoping that the online market place will stay buoyant and keep my fingers crossed that the postal systems can cope and keep operating. I think there will be a small decline in prices over the next three months and perhaps less demand for the bulk standard titles that have made a come back since the resurgence of vinyl (I’m thinking your Michael Jacksons, Police, common huge selling titles).
I believe the supply side of the market will be dry, but hopefully for only a few months and then will bounce back as quickly as it left.
To sum up we are in unprecedented times in any industry, but also in the second hand vinyl market. It’s going to be a struggle, i know my business will struggle, and is already seeing some profound changes. However i’m optimistic that we will all get through this. Some innovation will be required, some grit and determination, but lets face it vinyl has been around for over 60 years it’s just made a massive comeback it’s not going anywhere soon.
I would love to hear from any other record dealers, shops, collectors to see what impacts they are feeling at this point. Most importantly I wish everyone well and to stay safe during this time.
Hi Steve, Just read your article and I think you summed everything up pretty well. I am not a dealer myself but still have a few vinyl and bits of memorabilia that are reasonable if not mega rarities I suspect. I am mid 60s and mainly fond of early 70s bands though not exclusively. As I work in a pub as of today I have no work so will be sorting through lots of stuff soon for something to do , looking forward to finding what I had forgotten about. I imagine there may be several people like me in near future and as such you may well find stock in abundance, I hope you do and you can continue your business going forward. We are obviously living in weird times and can only hope we get through sooner rather than later providing everyone pulls together (which I’m afraid cannot be guaranteed, at least where I live,)
Anyway glad to be able to communicate with someone who shares a similar interest and I hope I haven’t wasted your time. Try and stay positive and I wish you well for the future. Take care and look after yourself and others.
All the best
John Turner (music freak)
Hi John,
Thanks for reading and your kind comments. I feel for you with pubs shutting down too. I do though expect you’ll have a great time going through all those old records and memorabilia. I expect you’ll find some gems you had forgotten about and probably a few you wondered why you bought them in the first place! Stay safe. Steve
Hi Steve,
I’d love to know what genres you’re selling online. Both myself and the four other full time record dealers that I’ve spoken with this past week have all experienced rapid (and severe) declines in our online sales due to the virus, across both our second hand collectables and new releases. These guys each representing slightly different genres and therefore customer bases, and selling their wares world wide.
It appears very apparent to me that against a backdrop of job uncertainty and with bills and food to prioritise the general public is avoiding all purchase of non-essential items.
By contrast I’ve already been offered two big record collections this week which were previously “off limits” but are now suddenly available to market, no doubt decisions hurried along through panic generated by the media.
My attitude remains personally positive, and I’m sure many of us will overcome this difficult time which let’s face it we are only a couple of weeks in to at this point, but I cannot over state just how bumpy the ride is already for self employed record dealers in the UK currently with online sales at an all time low for many of us, additionally with record fairs and festivals being cancelled, and little show of support coming forward from the UK government to give the 5 million self employed confidence and resolve during this crisis.
Hi Craig, Thanks for reading and for the reply. That’s interesting about the online side slowing. Is that ebay or discogs? I sell all sorts of genres at the moment I have a lot of northern soul on my ebay account ending on Sunday/Monday. This is usually UK buyers so I’m hopeful prices will stay reasonably high. In saying that Northern soul often sells to DJ’s. Dj’s who now have empty diaries and are not earning any money! Also interesting to hear about the new collections coming onto the market. Are you confident in buying them at current market rates? I’m thinking if you are unsure of how quickly you can turn them over or even at what sort of prices. Yes interesting times, but i’m sure we’ll come out the other end, but as you say it would be helpful if there was some further support for the self employed.
I only sell online from my ebay shop. Sales have remained constant and this current weekend (23rd March), sales were actually up a bit.
My biggest concern is that either the Postal service stops or I am unable to get out to post the Records. If this happens, I would have to stop selling for some time.
I have a reasonably large amount of stock so not being able to get new stock would not be a huge problem.
Hi Mark, Yes we are all reliant on the postal service. I think there might start being some delays, but i’m sure they’ll keep the service going. I also have quite a bit of stock, but as I sell on 99p start auctions am a bit weary of putting up the really good stuff incase the price drops suddenly.
Hi Steve,
I am a collector, not a dealer and run have this page on the web
http://oldgramophonerecords.co.uk/wanted.html
A few days ago I went from getting 5 or 6 hopeful emails a day from people asking if I wanted their 78s to, well, 2 to non. Yesterday though (sunday) I got a staggering amount of enquiries and at 7 in the morning Monday I’ve already had two.
I am totally blind and so can’t go view collections, this therefore means my methods are unchanged, if you have stuff I want, read it over the phone and I’ll help you to post them. I think more people will have more time to clear out their stuff and find grandad’s old records, etc over the coming weeks.
By the way, all that stuff you read about 78s being incredibly fragile and they will break in the post just isn’t true…
Interesting artical! I run a 78 enquiries website, http://oldgramophonerecords.co.uk/wanted.html
Over the last days I got pretty much no traphic, however yesterday I got double my usual amount which is a good 5 emails a day asking about 78s.
I’m a collector, not a dealer, and am totally blind so don’t often go view collections, so I haven’t had to change my methods.
I believe what will definitely happen and in fact already is is people will rummage through their garages/sheds, find granddad’s old records and get curious, that or want to sell them. More people suddenly have more time for music, I hope they discover 78s and how much great stuff there is on them but at the very least they could want to hear their favorite stuff on a new format to them aka vinyl.
I hope you as a dealer come through this alright, and don’t pass up those tottering piles of old 78s!
Rob, Yorkshire, England
Hi Rob, Thanks for your input and yes I can see it already on many facebook groups people have started enquiring about best ways to sort their vinyl, best ways to store it and someone even suggested he was burnt out from listening too much over the last day or so! Hopefully it will generate a new wave of interest in music. Also it’s great to see some of the bigger artists putting on online concerts. P.S I’ll keep your details as I sometimes come across the old 78’s but am never sure quite what to do with them. Cheers Steve
Hi Steve
I run a small retail set up in Devon – I have been buying and selling records for many moons . Thank you for this article – food for thought .
A couple of points occur to me – In a recession which I guess is where we are heading -Records usually hold up well , having said that we have been here before with the 2008/9 crash when there was an alarming closure of Independent Record shops over about 18 months – Some of those sellers went on line and for about 2 years there was a clear surplus of supply over demand so prices and sales were a bit of a struggle . Back then there were less on line platforms and not everyone had access to a computer – so record fairs and dedicated vinyl seekers seemed to weather that storm pretty well-
This new onslaught is rather more tricky to second guess . Imagine now if there was an equivalent on line virus to Covid-19 that shut down say Discogs E bay Facebook & Amazon – Sounds a bit grim I suspect – But record sales were ridiculously healthy in the 1970s and 80s without the internet . .. So perhaps we should look back a little to look forward .
Hope you and all record enthusiasts get through this safely and find prosperity waiting at the other side …
Rob Ash Beatnik Bay Records
Hi Rob, Thanks for the reply. Interesting comparing to the 08/09 crash. I wasn’t trading in the UK then so didn’t see the impact. I think and hope you are right that vinyl is pretty recession proof. My main worry is the postal service, but i’m sure even if there were problems there it would be quite short term. Any serious downtime I have a lot of vinyl to clean up!